Join us for the next edition of our monthly series where each of our team members at TFP share something their reading that we think you might enjoy too.
Bob Heykoop’s Choice: First Trust Portfolios Data Watch – February ISM Manufacturing Index
Once again we are seeing signs of economic contraction with the ISM Manufacturing Index coming in at 47.7 for February and the cooling of the US labor market. Next week the Labor Department posts the January job openings report along with the February payrolls report. We will see how the Fed responds later this month at the next opportunity to raise rates to combat the rise in inflation we saw in January. Take a look at the First Trust team’s economic report and their thoughts on the potential implications of the ISM number.
Evan Barnes’ Choice: First Trust – Monetary Mayhem Clouds Crystal Ball
Inflation in it’s simplest terms is caused by “too much money chasing too few goods.” In response to COVID, policy makers and the Federal Reserve increased the money supply (M2) in the economy by 40% over two years. This is the “too much money” part of the equation. While the markets are focused on what the Fed is doing with interest rates, it’s fallen under the radar that the money supply (M2) has been falling. The economic team at First Trust wrote about this and what to look for in 2023 in the attached article.
Drew Barnes’ Choice: LPL Weekly Commentary – Debt Ceiling Primer
You may be hearing more in the news about the impending battle over the U.S. debt ceiling. Here is a good piece by LPL Research explaining what the debt ceiling is, how it functions, and potential risks if congress fails to act.
Andrew Rhoads’ Choice: Kiplinger – Tax Season 2023: Tax Day, State Stimulus, Smaller Refunds
The 2023 tax season has started. And whether you like to file your tax returns early or prefer to wait closer to Tax Day 2023 (i.e., April 18), there are a few things you need to know about income reporting, new tax credits, state stimulus checks, and potentially smaller tax refunds—before you file your 2022 taxes.
Pete Koury’s Choice: Dr. David Kelly – Investing Beyond the Profit Squeeze
Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist with J.P. Morgan, provides his insight as to an outlook for Corporate Profits. To quote Dr. Kelly, “If there is a recession (2023), profits will likely fall sharply. However, as the economy stabilizes and settles into what we believe should be a slow-growth, low-inflation and low-to-moderate interest rate environment, profits should recover and likely outpace economic growth overall.” Please read the full article for additional insights.
Shane Wolfe’s Choice: LPL Research – No Landing = No Sense
In the media we have heard the term “soft landing” being used frequently. LPL Research explains the genesis of the “Landing” analogy and dispels the misconceptions associated. I particularly was intrigued by the “what does this mean for you” section. Overall, an informative article that brings light to what we hear the media portraying.
Katy Kappius’ Choice: Parents – How to Explain Inflation in Terms Simple Enough for a Child
Inflation is something all of us are starkly aware of these days, but how can you explain it to your children? They might be confused when their allowance doesn’t go as far as it used to or why mom and dad seem a little more stressed at the grocery store. Use this as a perfect opportunity to discuss the importance of financial planning and help get them involved in finding ways to save money or reduce expenses.
*Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and such information has not been independently verified by TFP. No representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by TFP or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, TFP does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. TFP does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date.
